How long will the UK have enough water?
‘Water doesn’t just fall out of the skies’, was a fantastic quote from a former Australian PM and whilst amusing at the time, it is a really serious observation. In the UK we get our water from rainfall. Year round water supply relies on winter rain being stored in aquifers and reservoirs. Climate Change is seriously affecting rainfall patterns and our ability to store water. The dichotomy is that with climate warming, the UK is experiencing more rain - according to the Met office the decade ending in 2020 was 9% wetter than the 30 years ending in 1990 - however, brief intensive bursts of rainfall lead to a significant proportion running back into the seas, not the aquifers and reservoirs where it is needed.
In films, Britain is portrayed as a very wet place with constant drizzle but over the past few decades that has changed. The increased rainfall we are experiencing in Autumn and Winter is countered by hotter and drier Spring and Summer periods. And, there are great regional variations, Scotland has experienced the greatest increase in rainfall whilst most Southern and Eastern areas have experienced the least change and have in fact become drier in certain areas. The aquifers we rely on in much of the South of England have suffered serious stress in recent years and this pattern, should it continue, will lead to serious threats to our water supply in the future.
The threat of a lack of water is dismissed by most people and most businesses as scaremongering. Any shortage of water is being blamed on water companies, and whilst leaks in their ageing infrastructure are a major issue, the change in water patterns due to climate warming is the greatest driver of these water shortages. Looking at Met Office projections for increasingly wetter winters and drier summers for the remainder of the 21st century, the UK should prepare for water shortages and this presents a very real threat to business continuity.
This change in rainwater is also happening at the same time as population growth, in the next 20 years we are expecting to see the UK population grow from the current 68m to 78m. Demand for potable quality water is therefore going to rise by an estimated 15%. So you can see that we are faced with a major challenge – reduced supply vs increased demand.
Water shortages affect us all.
The worst possible scenario, linked to climate change and population growth is that the UK could have 75% less available water by 2050 unless major infrastructure improvements and increased storage projects are actioned. Imagine the impact this could have on communities, the vulnerable in our society, healthcare and business continuity. In the business community, agriculture, manufacturing, leisure and tourism sectors, all heavily reliant on water, will bear the brunt of these shortages, facing disruptions in operations, reduced yields, increased costs and loss of revenue.
But it is not just future projections that should concern us; the present reality is equally alarming. Last year, in the UK’s driest area, East Anglia, two major new housing developments in Cambridgeshire failed to get planning approval following involvement by the Environment Agency who raised objections due to the immediate and future impact of water availability in the region.
How long will it be before we run out of water in the summer months? If we do nothing, this is not a rhetorical question, but one of timing.
Housing developers UK wide are having to meet strict new regulations on reduced water capacity. The average water use per person in the UK is 151 litres a day. Developers are being asked to ensure they are building new housing, limiting water capacity to 130 litres per person per day, or in the most affected areas, as low as 110 litres per day. Whilst this does promote innovation in design – aerated taps and shower heads, rainwater harvesting for use in garden irrigation, toilets and washing machines and reduced flow toilets for example, this still relies on rainfall and water storage in that region being available.
“If we do not act now, predictions are that in certain parts of the country, we will be looking at a divergence of supply vs demand within the next 10 years.”
We know that more reservoirs are going to be needed but we haven’t built one in the UK since the 1990s. They are expensive and often planning is difficult to achieve. But the need is great. With water companies in the press at present for storm discharge sewage spills and increasing levels of debt, public confidence in them is rapidly reducing. We need the regulator OFWAT to step in and show leadership on the issue of infrastructure, storage, climate mitigation and water shortage management.
We could also look to desalination (turning sea water into potable quality water), we are after all a nation that is surrounded by water. The most obvious location for one of these would be on the Thames, supplying the South East, but desalination has proved to be extraordinarily expensive as well as energy (carbon) intensive and the likelihood is that this will be seen as a solution for the future.
By far the cheapest and quickest way of saving water is water efficiency but this is largely ignored. Whilst water remains as cheap and abundant as it is for businesses, companies will prioritise investment and savings into areas where more regulation/legislation exists: energy and carbon. Even the simplest measures such as stopping a toilet leaking constantly, which happens in one in ten toilets in London, and costs thousands of litres per toilet is seen too much effort to fix.
Companies should start taking water more seriously. Water will become more expensive in the coming years, but more importantly if a business has no water it will need to shut down. An office block with no water is not usable, a hotel with no water will fail to meet it’s health and safety obligations, restaurants and leisure facilities will have to close, the effects of water shortages on business continuity will be financially damaging.
So, doing nothing is not an option. Businesses need to look at resilience, how can they mitigate against shortages. The first area has to be water efficiency. What is your business doing? How can you get Board focus on this?
The benefits of water conservation extend beyond business interests; they are essential for safeguarding the wellbeing of communities and ecosystems. Access to clean, safe water is a fundamental human right, and businesses have a moral obligation to ensure equitable access to water for all. Additionally, healthy water ecosystems support biodiversity, promote recreational activities and enhance overall quality of life.
“None of what I have said is scaremongering, it is a prediction of what will happen if business as usual continues.”
Rupert Redesdale, April 2024